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gary
Moderator
Registered: 10/07/05
Posts: 120
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Reply with quote | #1 |
Community Meeting on the Future of the U.S. Weather Prediction Enterprise
26-28 July 2005, Boulder Colorado
Executive Summary
Meeting Objectives: Examine the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. weather prediction enterprise. Discuss the evolving composition of the weather prediction community and how community decisions should be made. Examine the need for a more cooperative and coordinated approach to weather prediction operations and research. Discuss concrete next steps, consistent with the consensus of the meeting.
Executive Summary by Meeting Co-Chairs: George Frederick, Vaisala Inc. and Cliff Mass, University of Washington
The first part of this meeting addressed the larger picture. Cliff Mass, of the University of Washington, opened with his personal view of the state of the weather prediction enterprise. He said that great strides had been made in weather prediction. He noted that the U.S. has the largest private sector in the world and this is of great benefit. The potential of the weather prediction enterprise, however, has not been achieved. Cooperation is not there. Europeans have better numerical models at the smaller scales. Weather is probabilistic, but the forecast delivery is deterministic. Too many models have sapped resources and we cannot seem to focus on critical issues of physics. The weather prediction enterprise is very complex and we need to set priorities if we are to make progress.
Two keynote speakers set the tone. Michel Béland of the Meteorological Services of Canada critiqued the U.S. weather prediction enterprise from an international point of view. He concluded that the U.S. has good data access and dissemination, but has an inefficient multiplicity of operational models. Rick Anthes, President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, spoke from a national point of view. He sees the strengths in the U.S. weather prediction enterprise consisting strong university support from NSF and UCAR/NCAR partnerships with world class observational systems and models. Also, the U.S. has an excellent system for public dissemination of weather information. The weaknesses of the U.S. enterprise include the uncertain future of satellite programs, growing skills gaps in the university programs and too few young researchers coming into the field, too much Federal planning and little implementation of new ideas, lack of world class computing capabilities, too much management by consensus with little leadership, growing politicization of science, lack of integration of weather and climate, and inefficient transition of research to operations.
Recurring Themes
A series of sessions followed the keynote talks that sought to explore the background of the U.S. weather prediction enterprise, its strengths and weaknesses and recommended actions to address the issues surrounding the enterprise. The following recurring themes of the meeting were noted:
· Private sector risk due to NWS actions is increasing
· Some user communities are underserved
· The public sector can work with some new technologies that are inaccessible to the private sector.
· The public and private sectors play very different roles in the weather prediction enterprise. NWS is must provide services that are directed by Congress and mandated by treaties. The private sector can influence Congressional directives. In the end, however, NWS and other government agencies provide the services that the people want. The private sector is not so constrained.
· We need to consider standards for delivery of services.
A substantial number of participants commented on various parts of the National Research Council's Fair Weather report. D.L. Johnson announced that NWS was about to issue revisions to the current NWS policy, which was issued in response to the NRC report. Those revisions would clarify the NWS position on the public-private relationship.
Questions
Some questions requiring consideration came up during the meeting:
· How do we reach consensus?
· For advocacy, how do we develop a simple and understandable message, and how do we come together as a community to speak with one unified voice?
· How do we cultivate champions within the various branches of government?
· How do we establish compelling arguments for National imperatives?
· How can the national government participate in enterprise consensus building without violating public laws?
· How should we work with road weather and other user sectors?
· Should AMS take a position on the Fair Weather report?
· How do we grow trust throughout the enterprise and become more innovative?
Concrete Actions
Some concrete actions are needed:
· Collect baseline data. If our goal is to grow the enterprise and improve products and services, we need metrics on the economic impact of weather and climate information and a baseline against which to gauge progress.
· Establish goals and accountability. We need an enterprise-wide set of goals and mechanisms for accountability. Enterprise goals could include: (1) building a first-class U.S. NWP capability and increasing the skill of forecasts, (2) reducing tensions among the enterprise participants, and (3) establishing a national mesonet to develop a full range of observations from global scale down to regional and local scales.
· Build Consensus. Communications within the enterprise, as well as between the enterprise and outside world, is a very large issue. We need more than a listserv. We need a comprehensive and consistent message that is clear and easily understood by everyone. A course of action, either directly or indirectly from this meeting, needs to be developed and agreed by the participants. Gaining consensus with a group this large requires teams to address specific topics and develop text. We need a national set of priorities that are linked through the White House and internationally.
· Create a public sector advisory committee (an NWS or inter-enterprise committee). The committee needs to be broad and representative of the enterprise. It would advise, not manage. This could be a Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) committee. NWS said they will look through meeting notes for appropriate action items. They are willing to consider FACA but have questions (FACA for NWS, NOAA, or the enterprise?). Establishing a FACA requires expenditures of money and other resources. NWS needs more consultation on the scoping.
Next Steps for the AMS Commission
The AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise received a lot of input for its future activities. The above ideas are the starting point of a high level direction for the Commission.
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