ttarbell
Registered: 01/19/06
Posts: 2
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| | 02/05/07 at 08:24 AM | Reply with quote | #1 |
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This posting describes the call for Annual Partnership Topic [APT] nominations and contains the blank APT Nomination Form.
Call for Annual Partnership Topic Nominations
The primary purpose of the Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise [CWCE] Board on Enterprise Planning [BEP] is to review issues of a long-term strategic nature with importance to the enterprise as a whole. One issue, the Annual Partnership Topic [APT], will be selected each year from nominations submitted by the enterprise. Nominations are encouraged from all enterprise sectors—academic, government, private, and users. Each APT nomination will be evaluated using the evaluation criteria contained in the APT Nomination Form below. All enterprise members may comment on any APT nomination.
APT nominations are being accepted through March 31, 2007. Please refer to the APT Nomination Form below and follow the instructions to submit an APT nomination. As APT nominations are posted, comments may be submitted by replying to the APT Nomination posting.
Thank you for your support and interest. If you have any questions, please contact the BEP at amsbep@ametsoc.org.
Regards,
Terry C. Tarbell
Chair, Board on Enterprise Planning
Annual Partnership Topic [APT] Nomination Form
Please copy the APT form below, fill in the requested information, and post the APT nomination to the CWCE message board as an APT nomination.
Nominator’s Name:
Nominator’s Affiliation [organization]:
Nominator’s Address:
Nominator’s Telephone number(s):
APT Short Title:
APT Brief Description [6 lines or less]:
Please address the following questions in relation to the APT Selection Criteria [5 lines or less]:
1. Timeliness: Do you expect the results of the AMS annual partnership topic activities will be relevant to the weather and climate enterprise in 2 years and beyond?
2. Breadth:
a. Is the topic of concern to many private sector, academic, and government organizations of various kinds [Sectoral breadth]?
b. Is the topic of concern to scientific, technological, policy, legal, and economic interests of various kinds [disciplinary breadth]?
c. Is the topic of broad interest to many kinds of government agencies (federal, state, local), many kinds of private sector organizations (both users and providers of weather and climate information) and many kinds of academic / research institutions?
3. Impact: What is the impact the proposed APT is expected to have on the weather and climate enterprise and on society as a whole? Please describe the impacts in tangible terms (e.g. the fraction of the U.S. and/or global economy affected) and/or intangible terms (e.g. potential legal and institutional effects).
4. Interest: What is your estimate of the likelihood of success in forming a committee, with members from all four enterprise sectors, to study the APT and in gaining multiple contributors to the topic?
5. Linkage: Does the APT have potential linkage to other planned activities? For example, a topic which is related to a planned activity by an organization other than AMS (e.g. the World Meteorological Organization)?
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ableistein
ACUF Moderator
Registered: 04/19/07
Posts: 50
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| | 04/30/07 at 01:15 PM | Reply with quote | #2 |
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Nominator’s Name: Paul Hirschberg
Nominator’s Affiliation: National Weather Service/Office of Science and Technology
Nominator’s Address: 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910
Nominator’s Telephone number(s): 301-713-3557
APT Short Title: Forecast Uncertainty
APT Brief Description:
There is a growing need for the weather enterprise to comprehensively address user needs and science opportunities for assessing, generating, and communicating uncertainty in its forecast products, information, and services. Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of fluid system prediction, including the weather, seasonal climate, hydrological, and related environmental (hydrometeorological) predictions germane to the NOAA/NWS mission. Decisions by users at all levels are generated largely without the benefit of knowing and accounting for the inherent uncertainties of the forecast upon which they rely. Furthermore, while there are increasing numbers of individual development and prototyping efforts within NWS (in addition to NOAA and the enterprise at large) to generate and communicate more forecast uncertainty information, there is no comprehensive corporate NWS plan to identify and validate user needs and to develop and implement responsive products and services based on sound science.
Please address the following questions in relation to the APT Selection Criteria [5 lines or less]:
1. Timeliness: Do you expect the results of the AMS annual partnership topic activities will be relevant to the weather and climate enterprise in 2 years and beyond?
I expect the results of the AMS annual partnership topic activities to be very relevant to the future of the entire weather and climate enterprise. By the two year mark, a working group will be able to develop a specific plan of action for the enterprise as a whole and then more forward with the implementation of these plans. Using the sound science and expertise that encompasses the enterprise within 2 years, this plan should address how to incorporate and transmit forecast uncertainty products and services to the user community. Two years will also allow the participants’ relevant organizations to budget and prepare for these updates through additional research and incorporation into operations for the future.
2. Breadth:
a. Is the topic of concern to many private sector, academic, and government organizations of various kinds [Sectoral breadth]?
Yes. The addition of probability into the wealth of forecast products will increase the success in response to weather and climate events that will enhance public safety and the economy as a whole which is a concern to most all private, academic and government organizations. The success of forecast uncertainty in enterprise forecast products and services rely on the working partnerships and inputs of these various groups through their understanding of different user group needs and concerns.
b. Is the topic of concern to scientific, technological, policy, legal, and economic interests of various kinds [disciplinary breadth]?
Yes. Forecast Uncertainty has a very relevant connection to the social and behavioral sciences. By understanding the social and behavioral impacts of forecast uncertainty products and services, the success of these products and services will be even greater. Economic interests also want to know the uncertainties that relate to energy and insurance company risks in costs and savings. Forecast uncertainty can also affect tourism, textile, and various other industries. It could also have the potential to work into policy issues with concern to global climate change and human impacts to climate. Technologically, forecast uncertainty is of concern through how this information will be disseminated to those who have a need for it.
c. Is the topic of broad interest to many kinds of government agencies (federal, state, local), many kinds of private sector organizations (both users and providers of weather and climate information) and many kinds of academic / research institutions?
Yes. The National Research Council report: “Completing the Forecast. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts.” included participants from private sector organizations, academic/research institutions and government. This topic is of a great interest across the board with the results of the study providing many recommendations to the NWS and the entire enterprise. Bringing forecast uncertainty into an operational setting will allow this information to be used by interests such as the general public; air, land and sea transportation; emergency management, natural disaster recovery/response teams, state and local law enforcement, military and many other groups.
3. Impact: What is the impact the proposed APT is expected to have on the weather and climate enterprise and on society as a whole? Please describe the impacts in tangible terms (e.g. the fraction of the U.S. and/or global economy affected) and/or intangible terms (e.g. potential legal and institutional effects).
Forecast Uncertainty has the impact of allowing the decision makers in all weather and climate related situations know the inherent uncertainty of the forecast upon which they are relying. This will only allow for better preparation and fast response to changing conditions in weather for the short-term and for climate in the long-term.
4. Interest: What is your estimate of the likelihood of success in forming a committee, with members from all four enterprise sectors, to study the APT and in gaining multiple contributors to the topic?
The likelihood of success in forming a working committee, with member from all four enterprise sectors, to study the APT and in gaining multiple contributors to the topic will be very high. This is inherently known from the participation in the NRC report cited above, where those recommendations can move into the next phase of implementation into the enterprise.
5. Linkage: Does the APT have potential linkage to other planned activities? For example, a topic which is related to a planned activity by an organization other than AMS (e.g. the World Meteorological Organization)?
Yes. Forecast Uncertainty has a linkage to the Societal Impacts Program at UCAR, which is planning its next Weather and Society*Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) workshop for July 2007. By understanding the social and behavioral impacts of forecast uncertainty products and services, the success of these products and services will be even greater. Another linkage includes the THORPEX weather research program and activities of Federal Emergency Management.
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