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2nd Annual AMS Summer Community Meeting
Session 3A: Weather and Climate Enterprise Update
Session Chair: George Frederick
Note Preparation: John Gaynor, Jim Giraytys, and Gary Rasmussen (editor)
Session Objective: Review overall progress in the weather and climate enterprise over the past year
Review of the First Annual (2005) Summer Community Meeting, Speaker: John Gaynor
Objectives of the 2005 Summer Community Meeting
1. Examine the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. weather prediction enterprise.
2. Discuss the evolving composition of the weather prediction community and how community decisions should be made.
3. Examine the need for a more cooperative and coordinated approach to weather prediction operations and research.
4. Discuss concrete next steps, consistent with the consensus of the meeting.
Strengths of the U.S. Weather Prediction Enterprise
1. Weather prediction is hugely successful; future advances must be sold through improved services necessary for society and the economy.
2. The U.S. has a world class observing program.
3. Data access is very good.
4. The U.S. is a world leader in weather research and innovation.
5. The National Science Foundation) NSF and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) provide strong support to the university community.
Weaknesses of the U.S. Weather Prediction Enterprise
1. The U.S. weather prediction enterprise inadequately serves significant sectors of the economy such as surface transportation.
2. There are too many operational models.
3. Some important problems in the science of regional modeling do not receive sufficient attention.
4. The transfer of science and technology from research to operations is inefficient.
5. The U.S. weather prediction enterprise resists learning from and working with its international partners.
6. There are too few good partnerships between the National Weather Service (NWS) and the private sector.
7. The role of the private sector in explaining weather and weather impacts to the public is underutilized.
8. Coordination among federal agencies is not strong.
9. The future for U.S. satellite programs is uncertain.
10. Growing skills gaps are appearing in university programs.
11. The link between NOAA and academia is weak, particularly for the operational utilization of new science.
12. There is substantial planning, but little implementation.
13. Improved weather forecasts and economic benefits are not well correlated.
14. There is a lack of world class computing capabilities.
15. Increasingly, science is being politicized.
The 2005 Summer Community Meeting emphasized the need for mesoscale coalitions, leading to the main topic of the 2006 meeting (this meeting). Another suggestion from the 2005 meeting was that a few simple, but hard-hitting messages are needed, along with strong leadership. Marketing was identified as a missing piece of the national weather prediction enterprise.
A number of speakers and attendees urged NWS to implement Recommendation 2 of the National Research Council's Fair Weather Report. The report recommended that NWS establish a Federal Advisory Committee, with members selected from the user, public, private, and academic sectors of the weather and climate enterprise. NWS agreed to reconsider this NRC recommendation.
Prior to the First Summer Community Meeting many people urged NOAA to revise its Partnerships Policy to clarify that NOAA and NWS do not intend to compete with private businesses. During the meeting NOAA announced it was revising its new Partnerships Policy, and had posted a revised version to NOAA's web site for comments.
Enterprise Progress since the 2005 Summer Community Meeting, Speaker: George Frederick
The AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise (CWCE) has established three boards to carry out Commission business.
Cooperation across the enterprise is improving, as can be seen in the current meeting.
CWCE's Board on Enterprise Communications (BEC) has established a web-based forum for dialog and information exchange. It compliments CWCE's pages on the AMS website, which provide information about the Commission, its boards and committees, and their members. Subsequent to this meeting, BEC will establish a standing Program Committee for the Summer Community Meeting to plan future meetings well in advance. Following the Summer Community Meeting each year CWCE will host one or more Town Hall Meetings at the next AMS Annual Meeting. At the 2007 AMS Annual Meeting, BEC and The Weather Coalition will jointly host a Town Hall Meeting to discuss unifying support for a set of national initiatives and imperatives. Congress has asked our community to do this, and the National Priorities Town Hall Meeting will be an initial community response to that request. Moreover, BEC is hosting a second Town Hall meeting at the 2007 AMS Annual Meeting. Its purpose will be to discuss community cooperation in the production and distribution of climate forecasts and in the provision of other climate services.
The main goal of CWCE's Board on Enterprise Economic Development (BEED) is to help stimulate an increase in the overall level of economic activity within the weather and climate enterprise. The expectation is that increasing levels of enterprise economic activity will benefit all sectors of the enterprise. A second, complimentary goal of BEED is outreach to the many communities of users of weather and climate products and services. To help achieve these goals BEED has taken responsibility for the AMS Users Forum, which is held each year at the AMS Annual Meeting, and for the AMS Corporate Forum, which is held each spring in the Washington DC area. In addition, to further its outreach goal, BEED is establishing a series of committees to focus on promoting the weather and climate enterprise in the end
Community outreach is carried out by BEED commities focusing on end user communities. The long-standing surface transportation committee, which was moved into BEED when CWCE was established, is quite active. Recently we added an energy committee, and prospects are bright for adding another committee for outreach to the water resources community.
CWCE's Board on Enterprise Planning (BEP) has taken responsibility for the continuing series of Annual Partnership Topic (APT) Studies. The APT study will be completed within two years. Subsequent studies will complete within three years.
CWCE Commissioner George Frederick represented AMS at the recent meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva. In one session, the delegates discussed commercialization of services and how commercialization might impact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS). Most NMHSs are protective of their own organizational integrity and continuation. Some public services, such as hazard mitigation and climate change, cannot be commercialized. The meaning of "commercialization" differs greatly among the WMO Members. Some believe in partnerships. Some believe commercialization is a way to recover costs. One argument for free exchange of data is that consumption of data does not diminish its value. AMS offered recommendations consistent with the Enterprise Commission's work.
Plenary discussion: George Frederick, Moderator
GEO and GEOSS want to expand partnerships. Perhaps we can bring representatives from these activities and from the WMO into the Commission. The situation of international programs has not changed significantly over the years, and the U.S. remains in a leadership position. We should encourage the WMO to engage in a two-way dialog with the U.S. Weather Enterprise. AMS may wish to recruit an international meteorologist for CWCE, who could also provide a link to the WMO.
Bridging the gap between what NOAA currently does on weather and climate, and what it needs do, would require doubling NOAA's budget. Most of the additional funds would support the in-situ observing program, particularly on the mesoscale. For perspective, the cost of a reasonably good mesoscale observing system would be less than the cost of the NOAA satellite program. The U.S. weather enterprise needs to address this weakness of the U.S. observing system.
APT results might help NOAA argue for an increased budget. The proposed NWS Advisory Committee, if adopted and formed, could be a venue for addressing this issue. While CWCE cannot advocate or speak for the AMS, it can ask the AMS Council to support advocacy positions such as fully funding NOAA.
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